December 6th 2012
Most of us have seen the article in The Economist, showing Nigeria ranking last in the places to be born in 2013. But today I read an article entitled Lies, Damn Lies and GDP in the Guardian by Morten Jerven reminding us once again how bad the data and statistics are in many Africa countries.
Some excerpts:Shanta Devarajan, the World Bank's Chief Economist for Africa, struck a more dramatic tone. In an address to a conference organised by Statistics South Africa, he called the current state of affairs "Africa's statistical tragedy".
For a number of years now I have been trying to answer the question: How good are these numbers? The short answer is that they are poor. This is not just a matter of technical accuracy – the arbitrariness of the quantification process produces observations with very large errors and levels of uncertainty. This "numbers game" has taken on a dangerously misleading air of accuracy, and the resulting figures are used to make critical decisions that allocate scarce resources. International development actors are making judgments based on erroneous statistics. Governments are not able to make informed decisions because existing data are too weak or the data they need do not exist.
It is a real tragedy that the statistical capacities of sub-Saharan African economies are in such a poor state. African development statistics tell us less than we would like to think about income, poverty and growth in the region. One of the most urgent challenges in African economic development is to devise a strategy for improving statistical capacity. This system currently causes more confusion than enlightenment. However, governments, international organisations and independent analysts need these development statistics to track and monitor efforts at improving living conditions on the African continent. Poor numbers are too important to be dismissed as just that.
I'm definitely looking forward to Poor Numbers coming out and I have already added it to my wish list! If you would like book recommendations or you would like to share your suggestions, please feel free to email asquare07@hotmail.com
Some excerpts:Shanta Devarajan, the World Bank's Chief Economist for Africa, struck a more dramatic tone. In an address to a conference organised by Statistics South Africa, he called the current state of affairs "Africa's statistical tragedy".
For a number of years now I have been trying to answer the question: How good are these numbers? The short answer is that they are poor. This is not just a matter of technical accuracy – the arbitrariness of the quantification process produces observations with very large errors and levels of uncertainty. This "numbers game" has taken on a dangerously misleading air of accuracy, and the resulting figures are used to make critical decisions that allocate scarce resources. International development actors are making judgments based on erroneous statistics. Governments are not able to make informed decisions because existing data are too weak or the data they need do not exist.
It is a real tragedy that the statistical capacities of sub-Saharan African economies are in such a poor state. African development statistics tell us less than we would like to think about income, poverty and growth in the region. One of the most urgent challenges in African economic development is to devise a strategy for improving statistical capacity. This system currently causes more confusion than enlightenment. However, governments, international organisations and independent analysts need these development statistics to track and monitor efforts at improving living conditions on the African continent. Poor numbers are too important to be dismissed as just that.
I'm definitely looking forward to Poor Numbers coming out and I have already added it to my wish list! If you would like book recommendations or you would like to share your suggestions, please feel free to email asquare07@hotmail.com
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